GDC Keynote: Casual games are the future?
Category: Industry, Posted: 02/20/2008 at 11:11PM CST by Andy Groen, Content Contributor
GDC is always an interesting little time in the industry. You gather all the best minds of the gaming industry together in one building, and every last one of them thinks they know how to save gaming. In a keynote address, CEO of Playfirst, John Welch, made some noteworthy comments about casual gaming in a speech titled, "The Promise of Casual Games."
Of course, nothing ever really changes from all the talks and roundtable discussions, but damned if that stops anybody from running their mouth off. You may have noticed by now that my attitude towards this particular statement is one of displeasure. That is because I find myself completely at odds with his remarks.
"Casual games are really, really big." said Welch. "The point here is we have the opportunity to elevate video games to become a first-tier form of entertainment, like TV. We will have succeeded when 'casual games' goes away as a category and 'hardcore games' is the niche."
First of all, allow me to point out that the reference to television as an analogy is a dangerous one. Remember what happened when television stopped caring about quality and artistry, and tried to cater to the largest audience possible? "Dancing with the Stars" is what happened. "Big Brother" happened. "The Biggest Loser" happened. The analogy between casual games and reality TV, I believe is an apt one. It's what happens when companies start thinking with their bottom line in mind rather than their viewers, so they try to put as little effort and talent in as possible while still reaping maximum benefits.
And just as I'm sure TV executives were thrilled when reality TV became the standard, so will videogame executives and stock holders be thrilled when cheap shovelware becomes the norm.
Welch believes that the cell phone is the ideal platform for casual games, but he says he can't understand why they haven't taken off. "Everyone has one," he said. "Everyone has one at all times. But who is actually using that phone to download games? Everyday folks don't download mobile games--yet."
Were I allowed a rebuttal to his keynote I could explain to Mr. Welch the reason cell phone games haven't taken off. Cell phone games haven't become big business, because everyone thinks they suck. Most people have at least played a cell phone game before, and have realized that in general they just suck. Many people have even bought them, but you can only sucker someone into buying a game about throwing penguins as far as you can so many times before they start to make assumptions about the whole of the market.
This is what is happening now. People associate cell phone games with crap. He concluded his speech by saying: "There's going to be a lot of dead bodies in the side of the road in casual gaming. If you're a developer, beware the glut, because there's a lot of content coming...We're about to emerge from this cocoon, and there will be all different kinds of butterflies."
He's right, there will be a lot of bodies left on the side of the road. Any time a market puts all its resources into appealing to a fad adopted by the masses, there is an inevitable bust. Whether you're looking at the dotcom bust, Pokemon (a lot of people lost a lot of money towards the end of the Pokemon craze with Pokemagazines, and other Pokemerchandise), or Beanie Babies, it's pretty clear that the masses are an extremely fickle bunch.
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Whether people agree with this or not, it was one fine commentary.
A bit overly editorialized for my tastes, but oh, oh so true! The problem with TV as an analogy is that, as you said later on, after the boom comes the bust. Two or three years ago, TV stations were GLUTTED with reality TV. Now it's come down significantly, as only the best that the genre has to offer has survived, and with the death of the lesser reality shows, stuff like Lost, Heroes, Rescue Me and 24 emerged as the major TV nets realized that they need good content to get people to actually STAY. Wonder why the writer's strike was such an enormous deal? Why TV execs panicked once they realized they were going to have to cap Heroes season 2 early?
You're seeing the same thing with casual games, at least here in the States. While Wii hardware has sold briskly, software has not. Once you get past Nintendo 1st party and Rayman: Raving Rabbids, the games that are surviving on the Wii have a lot of "hardcore" resonance, like Resident Evil. The casual market isn't going to buy enough games to sustain this nonsense beyond three or four uber-series, the way only a few uber-series have survived the reality TV bust. Really, there's Dancing With the Stars, American Idol, Survivor and that's it (is Biggest Loser really that popular?). Everything else got lost in the crowd of Survivor imitators. In much the same way, the Wii has been choked half to death by staggering amounts of attempts to get on the Wii Sports bandwagon.
What I can't get is how this idiot can say that there's going to be this huge upswing in casual games, then turn around and say that no one's paying attention to it on the cell phone arena. HELLO!? McFLY!? If that's not a warning that this guy's shoving aside, I don't know what is! And before anyone says word one about Japan, remember that Japanese cell phone companies are more interested in selling top-of the line line phone tech than screwing over the customer the way they do in the West, resulting in cell phones that are easily capable of handling full RPGs like the upcoming The Third Birthday, Final Fantasy IV: The After, and Final Fantasy Agito XIII. There are DS-quality games on cell phones over there, not just crap like Breakout.
The problem here is that this idiotic industry still thinks in terms of casual/hardcore. There needs to be real demographic research, and games tailored more to demographics. I'm sure everyone knows that the original Star Trek series in the 60s was canned after only three seasons. What most may not know is that the cancellation came right before Nielson ratings started looking into the demographics, or the types of people watching shows, instead of just how many. What Paramount found out was that Star Trek appealed to an upper-class, affluent, intellectual crowd that they could charge advertisers a lot of money for. This is why we saw Star Trek: The Animated series, the Star Trek movies, TNG, and DS9, and why the series was going on strong until they messed it up with Voyager and Enterprise.
That's what we need to see in gaming industry market research: Not just how many people are buying a game, but WHO is buying that game? We understand that sports gamers are usually incredibly rabid fans of the sports themselves. What else can we gleam out of people who like FPSes, RPGs, puzzle games, etc? That's what we need to see: not just this overly-broad "casual" versus "hardcore" bull.
The above comment is a shining example of why I love writing for Gamernode. Getting comments as long and well thought as this makes writing the article worthwhile.
i agree with viewtiful, bravo yuko :D
although my star trek preferences is voyager on the top and deep space nine on the bottom O.o lol
Casual games are all the rage today. If you define casual games as [any game that can be picked up and played in short busts. Easy to learn] as I do so as the name implies. SSBB would be an example of a good casual game. My favorite game ever, Street Fighter 2, could be defined as a casual game. Although it may take weeks to master, you can pick it up in minutes. And play for 5 minutes of 1 hour. I kind of like the TV analogy. With more popularity, there will be more crap. Just like TV. But also like TV, the art form will continue to evolve. Look at channels like "The History Channel" or "Discovery". I watch them all the time, and their content is improving. But they are on pay channels (Cable or satellite). Like Yuko said, Its who is watching. People like me who would cancel subscription if they removed those channels, will keep those channels on. Same with hardcore games. When GTA or what ever your "can't play in 5 minutes" game of choice is, vote with your dollars. And it WILL NOT go away!
Man, do I love the free market!
Indeed, ninjalegend. Notice how Atlus, despite never really being a massive seller, is still in business so many decades later. It's because they know who their customer is and pinpoint that person with laser-like precision.