Will the next gen change everything?
Category: Industry, Posted: 03/26/2008 at 07:45AM CDT by Eddie Inzauto, Senior Writer
IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon recently spoke with Next-Gen about the next generation of videogames and videogame consoles. Pidgeon asserts that the PlayStation 3 may in fact be the last home console to be marketed as a leading-edge machine. This strategy, he says, will be replaced by the low-cost, high-accessibility model practiced by Nintendo with consoles such as the DS and Wii.
"I think the results of this cycle will have a strong influence on the next cycle, in that cheaper consoles will be expected. Microsoft and Sony will attain successful business on this generation, but catering to the early adopter hardcore gamers with a technology leader strategy will be difficult in 2011.
...I would have dismissed this idea as unachievable last cycle when only Xbox could provide a promising connected console experience, but it is entirely possible that the PS3 is the last bleeding edge console hardware we will see."
Taking things a step further, Pidgeon supposes that the next gen may not be a console generation at all, but a digitally distributed software generation, expanding on services such as Steam, and using existing platforms to deliver the product to gamers.
"...Third party publishers are already looking for ubiquitous platforms to reach the market increase achieved by Nintendo and Guitar Hero. The platforms of the next cycle may not be a console at all, but software distributed by network to convergent devices like PCs, set top boxes and smart phones."
This last point is something that many feel is the way of the future, much like mp3 downloads and iTunes-like virtual stores have become the norm in music retail. I think a shift such as this would be a huge boon to the growth of the industry, allowing far more time to be put into the creative development of new videogames, not just learning how to build software for each and every new - and different - piece of hardware as they are released. Costs would be cut across the board, granting developers and publishers more resources to produce the best product possible, and as Pidgeon said, lowering the price of admission for an entire generation of gamers.
[via Next-Gen]
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I don't know anyone personally who owns a PS3... they all own 360's or Wii.
"Taking things a step further, Pidgeon supposes that the next gen may not be a console generation at all, but a digitally distributed software generation, expanding on services such as Steam, and using existing platforms to deliver the product to gamers."
I believe this. I used to HATE Steam, but once I started using it for more than just running mah games, and started using it as the mini-browser/one-stop-game-shop/IM Service that it is, well, I love it. Seriously, if you are nothing but a PC gamer, every and all games that you really need is right there on Steam.
EDIT:
sans COD 4, of course. :D
Direct download games are at minimum 2 generations away. MS estimates (i think) that only half of the Xbox360's are connected to the internet at this point. You don't want to alienate half of your market. Thats bad business. Also HDD space isn't quite cheap enough yet to implement the terabyte drives they would have to put in consoles. Two generations from now it will be more feasible.
As for MS and Sony ditching the graphics race, doubtful. Nintendo is playing a completlely different kind of game, if you padon the pun, than MS and Sony. If i remember correctly the Wii has a low games attach rate, with the 360 somewhere near 7 per console. Gamers want to play the 360 or the PS3. Gamers girlfriends and parents want to play the Wii. They are completely different markets.
I agree 8. While microsoft and sony are fighting over the gamers, nintendo is sneaking round the back to sweep up everybody else. Unfortunantly for sony and microsoft, everybody else seems to be a much bigger market.
I think there should be more of a balance between next-gen hardware and current-gen hardware; a smaller leap in technology to keep console prices down. And backwards compatibility, so someone would only have to keep the latest of that console's line.
Needs more 'super backwards compatibility'
...like a cartage slot.
I have noticed a lot of self-appointed experts spewing an ungodly amount of unlikely predictions. Stuff like going back to 2-button controllers and making all games casual. It seems that GDC was the catalyst for them to crawl out of the woodwork. While I can believe that the next step in console tech may be smaller than usual, it's nothing short of stupid to predict that everyone is going to embrace Nintendo's vision. For one thing, there are absolutes, and the current generation (excluding the Wii) is absolutely able to handle compelling games. If they do nothing beyond clean the performance up with cooler (smaller, cheaper) IC chips, add a lot more memory, and ramp up the storage capacity, reliability and speed, and I'm there in 2011. A modest advance in rendering performance would be a welcome bonus.
While casual games are obscenely popular right now, it would be a mistake for anyone to make that the sole focus of gaming, be it in development or platform.
It's almost disturbing, that just as soon as games are finally on the cusp of delivering an experience better than movies and television and becoming a legitimate artform and storytelling platform of almost infinite possibility, that they want to take a step back about 20 years and focus on NES-style simplicity in all games.
It's just silly.
I think video games may end up going through the same stages that art, TV, and other media forms do. They tend to swing like a pendulum from surreal to realistic, Baroque to Rococo, sitcoms to reality shows. It is obviously hard to tell as a vast amount of time has yet to pass for this statement to be proven true. However, we may be on the brink of the switch from realistic, highly detailed games to simple, casual games. We will just have to wait and see.
"However, we may be on the brink of the switch from realistic, highly detailed games to simple, casual games. "
God forbid that ever happens. All I think we're on the brink of is realizing that there's still a market for simple, casual games. However, turn the industry into nothing more than casual games, and watch that entire multi-billion earning industry fall back into obscurity and novelty, exactly where it started. Just because casual games are a strong market, they are FAR from the only market. Every person worth a damn who isn't an "analyst" making predictions solely on numbers knows this.
A horrible thought, a horrible idea. If it ever comes to fruition, I will throw in my gamer towel. I haven't grown up alongside games just to watch them lose everything they've gained these past decades.
Just to allay my own fears, I feel compelled to mention the fact that while the Wii is indeed going like hotcakes, and casual games have found solid ground with digital distribution, the PS3 and 360 and their core offerings aren't exactly sluggish. They're anything but.
If every platform maker goes the Wii route, and concentrates on casual games, all they will have succeeded in doing is glutting the market and making "casual games" a dirty word just like everyone's favorite "reality TV."
Also, I don't see the prices of the "powerhouse" consoles to be prohibitive. Compare the $300 now, to the $129 almost a decade ago, account for inflation, and...well, do I really need to spell out the math?
(soz for triple posting.srsly, make with some comment editing ability already!!!)
to maybe go off on a bit of a tangent of shika_sage and a bit of rtanger's comments...
maybe the games industry is a bit more cyclical than people think...? what i'm saying is how many atari and early NES games took 20 to 40 hours of sustained play to get through the game a single time? now they grow up and want a bigger more grand experience that many other people can't really fathom (i'm not going to get into why's if's or even if this is a real possibility, but bare with please...). Introduce wii and casual games... grow the market a bit and then those people eventually want the same thing as the previous "generation" of gamers.
OR... it could just be that casual games have a little different methodology of addiction and since they are short more people are interested in playing them because they feel thay don't waste as much time playing them...
or possibly something else entirely...
"now they grow up"... they meaning the gamers... not the games...