Prediction: Video game consoles dead in 5-10 years
Category: Industry, Posted: 03/30/2008 at 05:24PM CDT by Andy Groen, Content Contributor
Thatvideogameblog.com is currently running an interview with the CEO of YoYo Games, and formerly of Microsoft Europe, Sandy Duncan. The interview shows Duncan's feelings on the videogame market's current direction, and more specifically, his belief that videogame consoles will die out within 5 to 10 years.
"The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years," said Duncan. "The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high."
Duncan later commented, "There is a definite "convergence" of other devices such as set top boxes. There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be "virtualized" as web services by your content provider."
The idea of conversion in regards to television set tops, and other devices, is totally logical. It's been happening ever since they built TV's with bunny ears built in, and don't forget those ugly TV's with the VCR in the front.
But it starts to get a bit harder to imaging when you start talking about all of these things being integrated into the television's technology. I can imagine an HDDVD capabilities being built into a TV for the display of movies downloaded online. However, I have a harder time imagining a television with a multi-core processor and advanced graphical capabilities built in.
Will it happen? Sure, but not in the narrow time frame Duncan provides. When you start talking about projects like full integration of games and online services into the living room, it's not an advancement of television technology, but rather a growing acceptance of media center PC technology already available in the market.
[via Thatvideogameblog]
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Hmm, i bet they said the same thing when the nes was big.
Handhelds dead in 5 to 10 years? So at the end or the DS's life-cycle, and when the DS2 comes out?
Riiiiight.
End of Consoles? maybe... 10 years from now... But I really don't see handhelds dieing out... personally.... I would think that Handhelds are the future of gameing... Something like the Sega Nomad... Fully portable... but can be plugged into a TV in some way...
So, PC gaming is dead, console gaming is dead. Guess we're all simply out of luck:p
Excuse me while I go on with my life...-_-
You can't predict the customers, and i personally don't like my game date being stored on some far away server when my ISP limits my bandwith, i want to play offline you know!
That is a bunch of bologna. The 360 has heat problems now. I could imagine the heat problems when put directly under the hot components of a tv. I do see them running a more nintendo like business model next go. Instead of hoping to make the cash up with game sales, they will also make a few bucks on the console itself. It may cost gamers their next huge technological leap in lieu of a small step up, and less risk to console makers. I forsee that in the next 5-10 years. Take that, Nostradamus!
"You can't predict the customers"
Oh how wrong you are, thats half of the business my friend, companies hire a pretty big staff just to research consumer trends.
doubtful... we'd need another Video Game Crash, like the one caused by E.T to kill off video games... and that's still rather doubtful. Now, if there was only one or two companies, and the industry was at a standstill (imagine a world run by EA) , then yes, there would be problems.
he is not saying that consoles and handhelds will be dead in 10 years, he said "dedicated gaming devices"
when the DS2 comes out it will not be a gaming device, but a IM-gaming-email-web browser.
when the original DS came out it was a gaming device but now you can IM and surf the web so in a way Duncan is already correct and this is not something that will in 5 years it is happening now.
Heck my primary web browser is my Wii, i stream movies and music to my PS3 and my iPhone does just about everything else i need.
I proclaim consoles and handhelds (at least the dedicated gaming ones) dead right now!
@The Hylden
My thoughts exactly.
Of course consoles will die out....console games start to die out due to old hardware, and right around that time....bang, out comes new hardware under a updated brand.
PC gaming have got a better chance of dying out than consoles. what a load of shit.