Michael Pachter, market analyst for Wedbush Morgan Securities, has raised concerns over the 4 million-unit production goal that Sony has established for its PS3. Presently, Sony,s goal is to produce 2 million units by launch, and another 2 million before the end of 2006. Pachter expressed his opinion that Sony would be hard pressed to make the 2 million PS3s by November due to rumors of component scarcity.
Pachter said, "Although Sony continues to insist that it will ship 2 million PS3s globally at launch, another 2 million by year-end, and another 2 million in the March quarter, rumors about component shortages and assembly bottlenecks persist." Last week, a story appearing in Taiwan’s Digitimes, indicated that there is a substantial lack of the blue laser diodes needed to assemble the PS3,s Blu-ray DVD player.
Pachter continued by saying, "Our prior forecast had presumed that Sony would hit its 4 million-unit shipment figure by year-end, with 50% of units reaching the U.S. and 25% of units reaching Europe. We have conservatively lowered this forecast by 25%, which appears consistent with published reports about capacity constraints."
In the event of a shortfall of available PS3,s for sale worldwide, Pachter thinks that Microsoft,s Xbox 360 will take up the slack for missed sales. He also commended Microsoft for its successful launch of the 360 and the continued momentum it will have throughout 2006. He stated that Microsoft had done a “phenomenal job of marketing the Xbox 360 in late 2005, and created demand for several million hardware units over the holidays. Consumers have continued to buy Xbox 360 hard and software throughout 2006, and we expect the trend to accelerate as more high-profile games are released."
In as far as shortages for the PS3 is concerned, Kaz Hirai stated recently that, “But even if you do the simple math you’re talking about less than 700,000 units per territory, per major territory, between launch and the end of the year. So even if there was some fluctuation, you give Japan more, you give the US more…you’re going to end up with some shortages."
Hirai,s statement was made with the expectation that the quota for PS3 production will be fully achieved. However, if Pachter,s prediction comes true, the shortfall will be more substantial then once thought. This state of affairs will mimic the situation that the Xbox 360 experienced upon its maiden voyage a year ago-long lines of customers clamoring for a scarce product.
